Is the Real Estate Market Going to Crash Soon in Alberta?

Not likely. While Alberta’s housing market is cooling compared to the frenzy of 2021–2023, current data suggests we’re shifting into a more balanced and sustainable environment—not heading for a crash.

Why Everyone’s Asking About a Crash

It’s a fair question. With rising interest rates, high home prices, and media headlines warning of declining affordability, many Albertans—especially those in Calgary, Airdrie, and Cochrane—are wondering if the market will take a tumble.

But based on current trends and local insights, the answer is: no, a crash isn’t coming. Here’s why.

Alberta’s Market in 2025: Balanced, Not Bursting

1. CREB® Spring 2025 Housing Market Update: Balanced Conditions Emerging

The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) reports that while activity has softened compared to the peak pandemic years, sales are still above long-term norms. Inventory has increased, pushing Calgary and surrounding areas like Airdrie and Cochrane toward balanced conditions. This signals a healthy correction—not a crash.

“We’re seeing a market that’s easing out of extreme seller conditions and into something more stable,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie in their June 2025 release.

2. CMHC Summer 2025 Outlook: Alberta Holds Steady

According to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), home prices across Canada may drop around 2% in 2025, but Alberta is expected to remain relatively stable. Their report notes that Alberta has better affordability, job growth, and housing demand than other provinces. A recovery is forecasted for 2026.

“Alberta’s fundamentals are stronger than Ontario and BC,” says the CMHC report. “We expect moderate price adjustments—not volatility.”

3. No Mortgage Meltdown Here

Most Alberta homeowners aren’t in over their heads. With tighter mortgage rules since 2018 and stress tests in place, most borrowers were qualified for higher interest rates than they’re currently paying. That means fewer forced sales and more stability.

Local Snapshot: Calgary, Airdrie & Cochrane

🏙 Calgary

• Benchmark Price (June 2025): ~$586,000
• Trend: Prices are stabilizing after rapid gains.
• Outlook: Still strong thanks to job growth, inward migration, and relative affordability compared to other major cities.

🏡 Airdrie

• Benchmark Price (June 2025): ~$509,000
• Average Days on Market: ~27
• Outlook: Airdrie remains a top choice for move-up buyers and families priced out of Calgary.

🌲 Cochrane

• Sales Volume: Slowed slightly
• Home Prices: Still increasing due to low inventory and lifestyle demand
• Outlook: Cochrane’s scenic appeal and limited land supply keep demand strong.

Should You Wait to Buy or Sell?

The idea of waiting for a crash might sound tempting—but in Alberta’s current market, it’s not likely to pay off.

Here’s why:

• Prices aren’t plummeting—they’re moderating.
• Interest rates remain high—waiting could mean higher long-term costs.
• Inventory is growing—but not fast enough to flood the market.

If you’re a seller, this means you still have leverage—especially with a strong listing strategy. If you’re a buyer, there’s a bit more breathing room now without bidding wars.

What to Watch Going Forward

Interest rate trends (Bank of Canada policy changes – which since July 30th, have held at 2.75% as the economy shows resilience to the threat of tariffs)

• Unemployment levels in Alberta
• Housing supply and new builds
• Migration and population growth

If any of these shift dramatically, the market could respond. But for now? It’s calm—not collapsing.

Final Word From Angie Hartmann, Property Sisters & Co.

“I work with buyers and sellers across Airdrie, Cochrane, and Calgary every week,” says Angie. “What I’m seeing is a normalizing market—more balanced negotiations, more serious buyers, and homes still selling when priced right.”

If you’re wondering what this means for your specific property or goals, it’s worth getting personalized advice.

Thinking of buying or selling in this market? Reach out to Angie Hartmann and the team at Property Sisters & Co. for a no-pressure, data-informed consultation.