Is It the Right Time to Buy a House in Calgary, Airdrie & Cochrane?

If you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the "perfect" time to buy a home in Calgary, Airdrie, or Cochrane, you're not alone. With fluctuating interest rates, shifting market dynamics, and economic uncertainty, many prospective buyers are asking: is now the right time? Based on the latest market data and expert forecasts, here's what you need to know to make an informed decision.

The Market Has Shifted—And That's Good News for Buyers

After years of extreme seller conditions and bidding wars, Calgary and surrounding areas have transitioned to more balanced market conditions. This shift represents one of the most significant changes in buyer favor since the pandemic began.

As of October 2025, Calgary's inventory reached 6,471 units—a 30% year-over-year increase—with months of supply hitting 3.4 months. This represents the highest inventory level since early 2020 and marks a fundamental shift from the tight market conditions that characterized 2022-2024.

The sales-to-new-listings ratio now sits at a balanced 58%, meaning buyers have more selection, more time to make decisions, and significantly more negotiating power than they've had in years. Sales declined 13% year-over-year in October, while new listings climbed, creating conditions that clearly favor buyers over sellers.

Property Prices Are Stabilizing—But Still Elevated

While prices have cooled from their peaks, they remain substantially higher than pre-pandemic levels. Calgary's benchmark price stands at $572,800 as of September 2025, down approximately 4% year-over-year. However, this modest decline comes after years of substantial appreciation, meaning homes are still considerably more expensive than they were in 20202021.

Property type matters significantly. Detached homes have shown more resilience with the benchmark price at $744,400, down just 1.3% year-over-year. In contrast, apartment-style condos have declined 6.9% to $318,200, and townhouses dropped 5.6% to $431,200. This divergence reflects oversupply in higher-density segments due to record-high construction activity.

Regional Market Variations: Location Still Matters

Airdrie: With a benchmark price of $537,300 as of January 2025, Airdrie saw nearly 4% year-over-year growth despite recent softening. However, inventory has improved substantially, with months of supply climbing above two months for the fifth consecutive month—a significant shift from the extreme scarcity of 2021-2023. More supply means Airdrie buyers now have options and negotiating leverage they haven't enjoyed in years.

Cochrane: Cochrane commands a premium at $565,900 (January 2025), nearly 5% higher year-over-year, reflecting its scenic appeal and limited land supply. While inventory has improved compared to recent years, Cochrane remains relatively tight compared to Airdrie, though still more balanced than the extreme seller conditions of 2022-2024.

Calgary: Within Calgary proper, geographic differences are significant. The North East and East districts have experienced larger year-over-year price declines (around 5%), while West and North West areas show more modest adjustments. Properties near transit, employment centers, and key amenities continue to hold value better than those in peripheral locations.

Interest Rates: Lower But Not Rock-Bottom

One of the biggest factors influencing buyer decisions is mortgage rates. The Bank of Canada has cut its overnight rate from 5% in 2024 to 2.25% as of October 2025, with most experts predicting rates will hold steady or see at most one more 25 basis point cut by year-end.

Variable mortgage rates have dropped accordingly and are now approaching or slightly below fixed rates—a reversal from recent trends. The best five-year fixed rates currently hover around 3.80-4.40%, while variable rates sit at approximately 3.85-4.45%. While these rates are dramatically lower than the 6-7% peaks of 2023-2024, they're unlikely to return to the ultra-low 2% rates of the pandemic era.

Most forecasts suggest mortgage rates will remain relatively stable through 2025-2026, with modest increases possible toward late 2026 as bond yields adjust. This means the current environment may represent a sweet spot: rates have come down significantly, but further dramatic decreases are unlikely.

The Renewal Crisis: Competition from Existing Homeowners

An important factor working in buyers' favor is the mortgage renewal situation. Approximately 60% of all outstanding mortgages are set to renew in 2025-2026, with many facing payment increases of 6-10% even with recent rate cuts. This financial pressure is causing some existing homeowners to reconsider their housing choices, adding to inventory levels and reducing competition from move-up buyers.

About 28% of homeowners are now switching lenders at renewal to find better rates—a 46% increase compared to a year ago—indicating financial strain among existing homeowners. This dynamic reduces competition for properties as fewer people can afford to upgrade.

Economic Uncertainty: The Wild Card

The elephant in the room is ongoing economic uncertainty, particularly around U.S. trade relations and potential tariffs. This uncertainty has weighed heavily on consumer confidence and contributed to the 19% sales decline reported in March 2025.

However, Alberta's fundamentals remain stronger than many other Canadian provinces. Calgary continues to benefit from job growth, inward migration, and relative affordability compared to Toronto and Vancouver. The Calgary Real Estate Board notes that despite uncertainty, sales remain stronger than anything reported throughout 2015-2020, when the economy faced significant oil-related challenges.

First-Time Buyers: Challenges and Opportunities

First-time buyers face a mixed picture. On the positive side, increased inventory, balanced market conditions, and lower interest rates have improved affordability compared to 2023-2024. Condo apartment prices have declined 4.1% year-overyear, creating entry points for budget-conscious buyers.

However, challenges remain. First-time buyers are trending older due to financing requirements, inflationary pressures, and economic uncertainty. Many rely on family support to achieve homeownership. The stress test remains in effect, meaning buyers must qualify at rates approximately 2% higher than their actual mortgage rate.

Despite these hurdles, current conditions are significantly more favorable for first-time buyers than the frenzied market of recent years. Multiple offers are rare, conditional offers are returning, and sellers are more willing to negotiate.

Should You Buy Now or Wait?

Buy Now If:

• You have stable employment and strong finances to weather economic uncertainty
• You're focused on entry-level properties (condos, townhouses) where prices have adjusted most
• You value selection, negotiating power, and time to make thoughtful decisions
• You're looking in areas with elevated supply (North East, East Calgary, Airdrie)
• Your personal circumstances require a move (growing family, job relocation, lifestyle change)
• You can secure a mortgage rate around 4% and are comfortable with that payment

Wait if:

• You're uncertain about job security or expect major income changes
• You're hoping for significant further price declines (experts predict 2-3% maximum adjustments)
• You're targeting detached homes in supply-constrained neighborhoods (prices more stable)
• You're uncomfortable with current economic uncertainty around trade and growth
• You're overleveraged and can't comfortably handle potential payment increases

The Bottom Line: Good Time, Not Perfect Time

There's no "perfect" time to buy real estate, but current conditions offer a window of opportunity not seen since 2020. The market has shifted decisively toward balance, inventory has improved substantially, interest rates have declined significantly, and sellers are more motivated than they've been in years.

However, don't expect dramatic price crashes. Market fundamentals remain solid, and experts forecast stable to modest price movements (within 1-3% either direction) through 2026. Waiting for a perfect moment could mean missing current opportunities, especially as improving affordability from rate cuts could renew buyer interest and stabilize prices.

The key is focusing on your personal circumstances rather than timing the market. If you're financially prepared, have stable income, and need a place to live, current conditions offer a buyer-friendly environment with selection, negotiating power, and reasonable financing costs—advantages that may not persist indefinitely.

Real estate remains a long-term investment. Buy when it makes sense for your life, your finances, and your future—not because you're trying to catch the absolute bottom of a market cycle that may never materialize.