When Will the Real Estate Market Recover? Signals Alberta Sellers Should Track

Introduction: Is Alberta's Real Estate Market Recovering?

For Alberta homeowners considering selling, the question on everyone's mind is simple: when will the real estate market recover? After the turbulent market conditions of 2024, with rising interest rates, inventory challenges, and shifting buyer sentiment, many sellers are hesitant to list their properties, unsure if now is the right time. The good news: Alberta's real estate market isn't waiting for recovery—it's already underway. However, recovery doesn't mean a return to the frenzied seller's market of 2020-2023. Instead, Alberta is transitioning to a more normalized, balanced market that offers genuine opportunities for sellers who understand the current dynamics and track the right indicators. This guide explains what market recovery means for Alberta sellers, identifies the key signals to monitor, and helps you determine if now is the time to list your property.

Alberta's Real Estate Recovery: The Current Landscape

The 2024 Slowdown and Beyond

Alberta's real estate market experienced significant headwinds in 2024. Rising mortgage rates, economic uncertainty, and an influx of new inventory combined to create challenging conditions for sellers. Many properties remained on the market longer than expected, and price appreciation slowed considerably from the pandemic boom years.

However, market data indicates a meaningful shift entering 2025.

2025 Recovery Forecast: Momentum Building

Prices are expected to grow faster in 2025, reflecting a recovery and renewed demand for ground-oriented homes, before slowing down in 2026-2027. By 2027, improved job markets and income growth will make housing more attainable than during the 2022-2024 period, supporting further recovery in sales.

The Canadian MLS® Systems predict 532,704 homes will change hands in 2025, representing an 8.6% jump from the previous year, showing the market is doing well and people are more confident.

For Alberta specifically, CREA and regional boards forecast that Alberta's housing prices will continue a moderate upward trajectory through Q2 and Q3 of 2025, with Calgary and Edmonton experiencing 2% to 5% growth, while secondary cities may see 6% or more.

Current Market Conditions

The average home price in Alberta in July 2025 was $503,123, with months of supply at 2.76, representing an increase of 22.1% year-over-year. The provincial sales-to-new listings ratio was 63% in July 2025.

This data reveals a market in transition—no longer a seller's market, but not yet a buyer's market. Instead, Alberta is moving toward balanced conditions that provide realistic opportunities for sellers with properly priced properties.

Key Market Indicators: What Alberta Sellers Should Track

Understanding which indicators to monitor gives you clarity on market direction and helps you time your listing strategically. Here are the critical metrics every Alberta seller should track.

1. Inventory Levels & Months of Supply

Inventory is one of the most reliable indicators of market conditions for sellers.

A low supply typically signals a seller's market, while a higher supply suggests more opportunities for buyers.

Inventory levels, or months of supply available, help determine market conditions.

What Sellers Should Know:

• Less than 4 months of supply: Seller's market—strong conditions for sellers
• 4 to 6 months of supply: Balanced market—realistic conditions
• More than 6 months of supply: Buyer's market—more competition among sellers

For Alberta, months of supply standing at 2.76 indicates a relatively tight inventory environment, though it's increased significantly year-over-year. This suggests there's still opportunity for sellers, particularly if their homes are well-priced and well-marketed.

Track your local market's monthly inventory reports from your real estate board to see whether supply is climbing, declining, or stabilizing.

2. Average Days on Market (DOM)

How quickly homes sell reveals the strength of buyer demand in your area.

Short DOM (under 30 days) suggests a hot market with many interested buyers and is often called a seller's market. Medium DOM (30-60 days) represents a balanced market. Long DOM (60+ days) suggests a buyer's market with fewer buyers.

Sellers should track DOM trends in your neighborhood and price range. If homes are selling in 30-45 days, you're in favorable conditions. If DOM is extending to 60+ days, adjust your pricing strategy accordingly.

3. Average Home Prices & Price Trends

Price trends indicate whether your local market is appreciating, stagnating, or declining.

Homes that sell in under 30 days typically signal a seller's market, while properties that stay listed for 60 days or more often suggest buyers have more leverage.

Track the average selling price in your neighborhood over the past 3-6 months. If prices are trending upward, momentum favors sellers. If prices are flat or declining, pricing your home competitively becomes even more critical.

4. Sale-to-List Price Ratio

This metric reveals how close homes are selling to their asking prices and shows buyer negotiating power.

Ratios above 100% mean buyers are paying over asking price—a clear seller's market indicator. Ratios below 95% suggest buyers have leverage to negotiate discounts in a market that favors them.

In Alberta's current market, ratios typically fall between 95-100%, indicating a balanced environment. However, this can vary significantly by neighborhood and property type.

5. Mortgage Interest Rates

Interest rates dramatically impact buyer purchasing power and market activity.

Lower interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages tend to boost demand for real estate purchases and bring prices up. Higher interest rates tend to have the opposite effect on real estate transactions.

Lower interest rates make borrowing more affordable, increasing buyer activity and driving up home prices.

Higher interest rates can deter buyers, leading to slower market activity and potential price reductions.

Monitor the Bank of Canada's interest rate decisions and mortgage rate trends. When rates decline or stabilize, buyer confidence typically improves, benefiting sellers. When rates rise, buyer demand softens, requiring sellers to adjust expectations.

6. New Construction Activity

Building permits and housing starts indicate future supply and economic confidence.

New construction affects your market by either increasing competition (if new homes flood the market) or signaling economic strength (if builders are investing in the area). Track new development announcements and building permits in your community to understand how future supply may affect your home's sale timeline and price.

7. Employment & Economic Growth

Broader economic factors influence real estate markets significantly.

Employment rates affect local housing demand. Additionally, interest rates influence a buyer's purchasing power. Population growth often drives property value increases. Migration trends can affect future development plans.

Alberta's economy remains relatively strong compared to other Canadian provinces, with continued population growth and employment stability supporting housing demand. Major job announcements or economic shifts should factor into your selling timeline.

8. Population Growth & Migration Patterns

Population movement is a leading indicator of long-term real estate health.

Alberta will see a 1.9% increase in population in 2025. This growth will likely affect housing demand and supply, making for a complex but promising real estate scene.

Growing populations support sustained housing demand. If your area is experiencing population growth, this signals ongoing buyer interest and supports listing optimism.

Market Conditions by Property Type

Alberta's recovery isn't uniform across all property types. Understanding how your specific property type is performing helps set realistic expectations.

Detached Homes

Detached homes represent the strongest segment of Alberta's 2025 market. Prices will grow faster in 2025, reflecting a recovery and renewed demand for ground-oriented homes.

If you're selling a detached home, current conditions favor your position. Buyer demand for single-family homes remains robust, inventory is relatively tight, and price appreciation is occurring.

Semi-Detached Homes

Semi-detached homes occupy a middle ground between detached properties and condominiums. They typically experience moderate appreciation and reasonable selling timelines in Alberta's current market.

Condominiums

Condominium markets face more headwinds than single-family homes. Factors including oversupply, investor activity, and changing buyer preferences toward ground-oriented properties have created more challenging conditions for condo sellers.

If you're selling a condo, pricing competitively and highlighting unique features become even more important.

Action Steps for Alberta Sellers: When to List

Conditions Favoring Immediate Listing

Consider listing now if:

• Your home is well-maintained and move-in ready
• Your asking price aligns with current market comparables
• You're flexible on closing timelines
• Your property type (detached/semi-detached) is in demand
• You're located in a high-demand area like Calgary, Edmonton, or Airdrie

Sellers who list well-priced homes in good condition can still expect solid results in 2025, even if the competition is greater than in previous years.

Conditions Requiring Strategic Patience

Consider waiting if:

• Your home requires significant repairs or updates
• You're unsure about accurate market pricing
• You need time to prepare your home for sale
• Your timeline is flexible and you're comfortable with longer marketing periods

Taking 2-3 months to properly prepare your home can dramatically improve results, even in a more balanced market.

The Cost of Waiting

While some sellers wait for market conditions to "improve further," timing risks include:

• Seasonal shifts reducing buyer activity (fall/winter typically slower than spring/summer)
• Continued inventory growth reducing your competitive advantage
• Interest rate unpredictability affecting buyer demand
• Market sentiment changes potentially impacting buyer confidence

Rather than timing the market perfectly, focus on pricing your home accurately for current conditions and presenting it professionally.

Regional Market Differences Across Alberta

Alberta's market recovery isn't uniform across all regions. Understanding your local market nuances is critical.

Calgary & Edmonton: Calgary and Edmonton are expected to lead the provincial real estate momentum, with 2% to 5% home price growth expected and strong buyer interest in high-demand regions like Calgary, Edmonton, and Airdrie.

Secondary Markets: Lethbridge, Red Deer, Grande Prairie, and other secondary cities may experience stronger appreciation (6%+ projected) due to lower baseline prices and growing population migration from major cities seeking affordability.

Mountain Communities: Areas like Cochrane and Canmore experience unique market dynamics tied to tourism, recreational activity, and seasonal fluctuations.

Work with a local real estate professional who understands your specific market's nuances.

Regional Market Differences Across Alberta

Alberta's real estate market is not about to crash. Neither is it returning to the pandemic-era seller's frenzy.

Instead, it's maturing into a realistic, balanced market where:

• Properly priced homes sell
• Buyer choice has expanded
• Negotiation is possible but not extreme
• Economic fundamentals remain relatively strong
• Population growth continues driving housing demand

For sellers, this means opportunity exists—but it requires accurate pricing, professional marketing, and realistic expectations.

If you've been considering listing your Alberta home, 2025 presents a genuine window to do so. Market recovery is underway, conditions continue improving, and buyer interest is accelerating. The question isn't whether the market will recover—it's whether you'll capitalize on the current moment before conditions shift further.