Will Housing Prices Skyrocket in 2026? What CREB Data Tells Us

Will Calgary-area housing prices explode upward in 2026, rewarding those who buy now and penalizing those who wait?

It's a question on every buyer's, seller's, and investor's mind as we navigate through 2025's cooling market conditions. With inventory rising, prices softening in many segments, and economic uncertainty creating hesitation, the big question is whether 2026 will bring a dramatic rebound or continued moderation. Here's what the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) data and expert forecasts reveal about what's likely ahead.

CREB's Official Stance: Stabilization, Not Skyrocketing

CREB's forecast for the Calgary market has evolved significantly throughout 2025, and the trajectory points toward stabilization rather than explosive growth in 2026.

In January 2025, CREB initially projected optimism with sales forecasted to exceed 26,000 units—over 20% higher than long-term trends—and anticipated price growth of approximately 3%. Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie noted that housing demand was expected to remain strong, though the market would transition toward balanced conditions.

However, by spring 2025, reality required substantial revision. Economic uncertainty driven by tariff threats weighed on consumer confidence. March 2025 sales declined 19% year-over-year to just 2,159 units, with easing demand met by gains in new listings and rising inventories. This helped shift the market back toward balanced conditions following four consecutive years favoring sellers.

By fall 2025, the picture became even clearer. September saw Calgary's benchmark price at $572,800, down 4% year-over-year. The sales-to-new-listings ratio hit 45%—indicating a balanced market—while inventory climbed to 6,916 units, 36% higher than the previous year and 17% above typical September levels.

Looking ahead to winter 2025 through 2026, CREB projects city-wide benchmark prices will experience minor fluctuations, generally within the 1% to 3% range. Stronger submarkets may see slight appreciation, while areas with higher inventory could experience modest softening. Detached homes are expected to hold steady, with modest declines of about 1% to 2% anticipated in higher-density segments like row homes and apartments.

This is stabilization language, not skyrocketing terminology.

What Changed From the Hot Market of 2023-2024?

To understand 2026 predictions, we need context from recent market evolution. Calgary experienced recordbreaking conditions in 2023 and early 2024. In July 2023, CREB reported the strongest statistics ever recorded, with the benchmark composite home price increasing 5.6% year-over-year to $551,300.

Several factors fueled this heat: Alberta's record interprovincial migration brought tens of thousands of new residents, inadequate housing starts failed to keep pace with population growth, and low inventory created intense buyer competition. Homes routinely received multiple offers, and bidding wars became standard in desirable neighborhoods.

But markets change. By 2025, several cooling factors emerged. Rising new home construction bolstered supply in rental, new home, and resale ownership markets. Calgary's rental vacancy rate rose dramatically from 1.4% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2024, with forecasts suggesting it could approach 6% in 2025 as new supply enters. Population growth, while still positive, slowed considerably from peak levels. And persistent economic uncertainty, including tariff threats and interest rate impacts, dampened buyer urgency.

The result? Inventory levels rose to 4,352 units by November 2024—a notable increase from the 3,000 units reported the previous year. By September 2025, inventory had climbed even higher. Supply choice expanded significantly at a time when demand was slowing, mostly due to slower population growth and persistent uncertainty.

The Supply Story: More Construction Coming

One critical factor working against price explosions in 2026 is the construction pipeline. Calgary recorded record housing starts in 2022 at 17,306 units, with continued high volumes through 2023-2024. Over 22,500 new homes were completed by the end of 2024, with half being apartments.

This supply isn't theoretical—it's hitting the market throughout 2025 and will continue through 2026. New housing supply, including purpose-built rentals and condominium projects, has become a major influence on Calgary's near-term outlook. The uptick in housing starts and completions forecast for 2024-2025 offers both renters and buyers substantially more options.

The impact varies by location and property type. Projects near transit lines, employment hubs, or major lifestyle amenities tend to lease or sell faster, as demand in these areas remains strong. Conversely, developments in peripheral zones without these drivers may experience slower absorption and higher vacancy levels.

For higher-density segments—row homes and apartments—where the bulk of new construction is concentrated, this supply influx creates downward price pressure that's difficult to overcome quickly. Even as the broader market stabilizes, these segments face headwinds from competing new inventory.

Interest Rates: The Wild Card

Interest rate movements represent the most unpredictable variable affecting 2026 housing prices. The Bank of

Canada's recent rate cuts are bringing back buyers who were previously priced out as borrowing costs stabilize. If mortgage rates continue trending lower through early 2026, the combination of higher inventory and improved affordability could renew momentum, stabilizing prices and sustaining moderate sales growth.

However, expectations matter. Calgary's market was predicted to remain sensitive to rate changes, with the Bank of Canada interest rates sitting at 5% through much of 2024. The question is how low rates will go and how quickly.

Lower rates improve affordability, potentially increasing buyer pools and supporting prices. But they also unlock sellers who've been rate-locked in their current mortgages, potentially adding even more inventory to an already well-supplied market. The Bank of Canada indicates that by 2026, nearly all borrowers will have to renew their mortgages at current rates—creating another wave of potential sellers.

The net effect likely balances out to modest improvement rather than dramatic surge.

Regional Variations: Not All Markets Are Equal

Predictions about 2026 must account for significant variation across the Calgary region. Some communities show greater resilience than others.

Cochrane, for instance, has demonstrated remarkable strength. September 2025 benchmark prices of $584,300 showed resilience with modest gains despite recent monthly adjustments. Strong population growth continuing toward 40,000+ residents and limited supply relative to demand create tighter market conditions that support pricing.

Conversely, areas with heavy new construction or weaker fundamentals face continued softness. Location selectivity has become more important than ever. Assets in neighborhoods with limited room for further development, or in high-demand corridors with strong fundamentals, are likely to hold their value best through 2026.

Inner-city and high-amenity neighborhoods continue showing higher resilience, particularly for detached and semi-detached homes. These property types have experienced relatively stable values throughout 2025's cooling, suggesting they'll fare better in 2026 as well.

What External Forecasters Predict

Third-party forecasters offer additional perspective beyond CREB's official projections:

Royal LePage Calgary predicts aggregate home prices will rise 4% over 2025 to $728,104, with detached single-family homes projected to increase 4.5% and condominiums rising 2% to $278,154 by year-end 2025. They believe prices will be supported by growth in residential attached and townhome segments attracting firsttime buyers.

However, this represents 2025 predictions made earlier in the year, before the full extent of cooling became apparent. Whether these gains materialize—and whether they'd continue into 2026—remains questionable given actual market performance through fall 2025.

Independent forecasts suggest the Calgary housing market forecast for 2025 and beyond will involve continued growth projections, though with moderation from the explosive 2023-2024 pace. Some analysts project average house prices could reach $890,000 by 2026, based on population growth and GDP projections.

These bullish forecasts assume continued strong population growth, sustained economic performance, and normalization of interest rates creating renewed buyer urgency. However, they may underweight the supply surge and demand softening that's materialized throughout 2025.

The Realistic 2026 Scenario

Synthesizing CREB data, market trends, and expert analysis points toward a realistic 2026 outlook:

Baseline expectation: Prices will stabilize with modest fluctuations in the 1-3% range, matching CREB's official projection. Some segments and locations will appreciate slightly, while others soften modestly. The dramatic appreciation of 2023-2024 will not repeat.

Upside scenario: If interest rates drop more aggressively than expected, economic uncertainty resolves positively, and population growth rebounds stronger than forecast, prices could rise 3-5% across the board. This represents meaningful appreciation but falls well short of "skyrocketing."

Downside scenario: Continued economic headwinds, further population growth slowdown, or additional supply hitting the market could push prices down 2-4% in oversupplied segments, with flatter performance overall.

"Skyrocketing" implies double-digit appreciation—the kind of explosive growth seen in 2021-2022 nationally or in Calgary's 2023 surge. Nothing in current data or forecasts suggests this is likely for 2026.

What This Means for Different Stakeholders

For buyers: 2026 likely offers continued balanced conditions with reasonable selection, less competition, and stable pricing. Fear of missing out on explosive growth probably isn't justified. Take your time, be selective, and negotiate confidently.

For sellers: Expectations must remain realistic. The seller's market of recent years has ended. Price competitively, present properties professionally, and prepare for longer marketing times. Well-maintained homes in desirable locations will still sell successfully, but the days of multiple offers and over-asking sales have largely passed outside specific hot pockets.

For investors: Location selection becomes critical. Properties in high-demand neighborhoods with limited new construction offer better appreciation potential. Higher-density properties in oversupplied areas may face continued headwinds. Rental investors should be conservative with rent projections given rising vacancy rates, though well-located properties near transit, universities, and employment centers should maintain stable rents.

For those waiting: If you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a crash, 2026 probably won't deliver that either. Calgary's fundamentals—positive population growth, strong economy relative to other provinces, and affordable housing compared to Toronto and Vancouver—provide a floor beneath prices. Expect stability, not disaster.

Cochrane and Airdrie Specific Outlook

For homeowners and buyers in Cochrane and Airdrie, 2026 outlook varies by community:

Cochrane: Continued resilience likely due to strong population growth, limited buildable land constraining supply growth, desirable location and lifestyle appeal, and tighter market conditions than Calgary overall.

Modest appreciation of 2-4% is plausible, outperforming the broader region.

Airdrie: More moderate outlook with prices potentially flat to up 1-2%. The community faces more new construction competing with resale inventory and has experienced steeper year-over-year declines through 2025 (-5% by September). Recovery will be gradual rather than explosive.

Both communities offer significantly better value than Calgary's inner city, which continues attracting buyers seeking affordability. This fundamental appeal should prevent major declines while limiting upside potential as supply remains relatively abundant.

The Bottom Line

Will housing prices skyrocket in 2026? CREB data and market fundamentals say no.

Instead, expect stabilization with modest fluctuations—some segments and locations appreciating slightly, others softening modestly, and the overall market finding equilibrium after years of imbalance. The dramatic appreciation of 2023-2024 represented a correction from years of flat pricing and was fueled by unique circumstances unlikely to repeat soon.

For those hoping to time the market perfectly—buying at absolute bottom or selling at absolute peak—the 2026 outlook suggests modest, predictable movement rather than dramatic swings. This actually benefits most market participants by creating stable, rational conditions where decisions can be made based on personal circumstances rather than fear or speculation.

The real estate market isn't about to crash, but it's not about to explode upward either. It's simply normalizing after an exceptional period, returning to fundamentals where supply, demand, affordability, and economic conditions interact to produce measured, sustainable outcomes.

That might not be exciting, but for most homeowners, buyers, and communities, it's far healthier than the alternative.